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ارزیابی آسیب پذیری سکونتگاه های روستایی در برابر سیلاب با توجه به تغییرات پوشش زمین (مطالعه موردی : روستاهای شهرستان اردبیل)
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Lotfollah Malki *  , Elham Mollanuri |
| University of Mohaghegh Ardabili , l.maleki@uma.ac.ir |
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Abstract: (10 Views) |
Objective: Flood is one of the most important natural disasters that causes extensive damage to human settlements. One of the main factors exacerbating this risk is changes in land cover and land use. The aim of the present study is to assess the vulnerability of rural settlements around Ardabil to flooding with an emphasis on land use changes during the period 2005 to 2025 and to determine risk zones in order to support spatial planning and risk management.
Method: This study is applied in nature and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. In order to investigate land use changes, Landsat 5 and 8 satellite images from 2005 and 2025 were processed using the object-oriented classification method and land use maps were prepared. Then, using the change detection technique, the twenty-year development trend was analyzed. To assess flood vulnerability, human, hydrological, geological, environmental, topographic and climatic criteria including distance from waterway and river, rainfall, slope, elevation, lithology, vegetation, land use, distance from road and distance from rural areas were selected and weighted using the Analytical Network Process (ANP) model in Super Decisions software. Finally, a flood risk zoning map was prepared in a GIS environment in five classes.
Results: The results showed that during the study period, the area of ecologically valuable land uses such as good pasture, poor pasture and irrigated agriculture decreased, while residential, rainfed and barren lands increased. The most significant changes were related to the conversion of barren lands to irrigated and rainfed agriculture and the conversion of good pastures to agricultural uses, which indicates an increase in human pressure on natural resources. In the ANP model, distance from waterway and river played the greatest role in determining the severity of flood risk, followed by rainfall, distance from rural areas and slope. Also, a significant part of the area is located in high-risk and very high-risk categories, and many villages overlap with these zones.
Conclusion: The increased vulnerability of villages around Ardabil is the result of the interaction of natural factors and human interventions, especially land use changes. The development of settlements and agricultural activities without considering the hydrological capacity of the basin has exacerbated the risk of flooding. Therefore, integrated management of the catchment area, control of construction in the river basin, and restoration of vegetation cover are essential to reduce risk and enhance the resilience of the region. |
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| Keywords: Analytical Network Modeling (ANP), Object Oriented Classification, Change Detection, Flood Zoning Provide |
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
سکونتگاههای شهری و روستایی
Received: 2026/02/27 | Accepted: 2026/08/17
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