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Assessing the future impacts of tourism development on environmental sustainability in the villages of the Kalibar region
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Masoud Haghlesan *   |
| Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Ilk.C., Islamic Azad University, Ilkhchi, Iran. , ma.haghlesan@iau.ac.ir |
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Abstract: (1006 Views) |
Objective: Tourism development in the villages of the Kalibar region, despite creating economic opportunities, has complex consequences for environmental sustainability, necessitating a forward-looking assessment. This study identifies and analyzes the key uncertainties shaping the future of environmental sustainability in the tourism destination villages of the Kalibar region.
Method: This research adopts a qualitative approach and is purposively applied. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 28 academic and executive experts related to tourism and the environment in the region. Purposive sampling continued until theoretical saturation was achieved; saturation was reached at the 25th interview and continued through 28 interviews for confirmation. The MicMac futures studies software was used to analyze the data and identify the drivers influencing the future of environmental sustainability
Results: The research findings showed that the components of "Policy-making and Management," "Local Community Participation," and "Green Economy and Technology," with total influence scores of 110, 83, and 77 respectively, are the most important drivers affecting the future of environmental sustainability in the Kalibar region. In contrast, the "Natural Resources and Ecosystem" component, with an influence score of 39 and a dependence score of 118, was identified as the most vulnerable element of the system. The matrix fill rate (23.90%) also indicates the tourism system's high complexity and instability in the region. The most important key drivers identified are, in order: long-term planning, green policy-making, adaptive management, and application of the green economy. The analysis of indirect relationships shows that the green economy component, with its hidden influence, replaces cooperation in tourism management among the main drivers.
Conclusions: Achieving environmental sustainability depends on adopting forward-looking approaches such as long-term planning, green policy-making, adaptive management, local community participation, and green economy development. The proposed operational measures include developing a 20-year tourism vision document, zoning based on environmental carrying capacity, forming a rural development council, launching an online environmental monitoring system, and developing adaptive management scenarios for the next three decades. This research, with its futures approach and simultaneous analysis of direct and indirect effects, shows innovation compared with previous studies. |
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| Keywords: Tourism Development, Environmental Sustainability, Village, Kalibar Region, MicMac Software. |
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Full-Text [PDF 2192 kb]
(30 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
سکونتگاههای شهری و روستایی
Received: 2026/02/17 | Accepted: 2026/06/10 | Published: 2026/09/22
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