Introduction
Rural tourism, as one of the main pillars of sustainable development in local areas, has received special attention from planners in recent decades. The Kalibar region, with its natural attractions, Arasbaran forests, rich cultural heritage, and authentic rural texture, has high potential for tourism development. However, the rapid development of tourism in the villages of this region can have dual consequences; on one hand, it leads to economic prosperity and job creation, and on the other hand, it places increasing pressure on natural resources, sensitive ecosystems, and environmental sustainability. Assessing the long-term effects of tourism on the environment of Kalibar's villages, due to the dynamic and complex nature of interactions between human activities and the natural context, requires a forward-looking approach. Numerous uncertainties in economic, social, institutional, and environmental dimensions challenge linear planning and reveal the necessity of applying futures studies methods. Identifying key drivers and probable scenarios can pave the way for adaptive management and reduction of adverse environmental impacts. Therefore, the present study seeks to answer three fundamental questions:
1.How can the key drivers affecting the future of environmental sustainability in the tourism villages of the Kalibar region be identified and prioritized?
2.What are the most important drivers affecting the future of environmental sustainability in the tourism villages of the Kalibar region?
3.What is the type and extent of the influence of these drivers on each other and on the environmental sustainability system of the region?
Method
The purpose of this research is a futuristic analysis of the effects of tourism development on environmental sustainability in the villages of the Kalibar region using the cross-impact analysis approach. The approach used in this research is futures studies based on structural analysis, which identifies key variables affecting the system. The main tool used for analysis is the MicMac software, which, by utilizing a cross-impact matrix, provides the capability to analyze complex relationships among variables. The study population includes specialists and experts in the fields of urban planning, architecture, geography, and environmental planning. The data collection process began with library studies to identify initial components and then, using the opinions of 28 experts (continuing until theoretical saturation was reached at the 25th expert), the final components were confirmed and selected. For data analysis, a 16×16 matrix was formed in the MicMac software, and the influence of each component on other components was determined on a scale from zero to three, including potential effects. Data analysis was conducted at both direct and indirect levels with two iterations to achieve 100% matrix optimality and desirability. Finally, by plotting distribution diagrams and graphs of direct and indirect effects, the key variables influencing the system were identified and prioritized.
Results
Examining the distribution plot of the effects of tourism development on environmental sustainability in the villages of the Kalibar region shows that most components are organized around a main axis. Except for a few variables with high influence, other variables do not differ much from each other, indicating system instability. The MicMac software provides two types of analysis and graphs for variables: direct effects and indirect effects. This software plots the degree of dependence and influence of factors in a conceptual diagram formed based on the two axes of dependence and influence. Based on the MicMac software analysis, the key influential components in improving governance in the Kalibar region were identified and prioritized. The results show that "Long-term Planning," with a score of 1126 in direct influence and 1175 in indirect influence, acts as the main strategic factor in the system. Following that, "Green Policy-making," with a score of 1070 in direct effects and 1090 in indirect effects, is considered the second most influential component, playing a significant role in directing sustainable development processes. Also, "Adaptive Management," with scores of 901 in direct effects and 965 in indirect effects, indicates the high capacity of this component in creating hidden links and multi-layered influence. Another notable point is the replacement of the component "Application of Green Economy" with a score of 901 in the indirect analysis instead of "Cooperation in Tourism Management" with a score of 816 in the direct analysis, which indicates the hidden but strong influence of the green economy in the network of relationships among variables. These findings emphasize that focusing on long-term planning and green policy-making, along with paying attention to the capacities of the green economy, can pave the way for achieving sustainable governance in the region.
The present study was conducted with the aim of a futuristic analysis of the effects of tourism development on environmental sustainability in the villages of the Kalibar region. The research findings indicate that the tourism system in the studied area suffers from high instability, as the matrix fill rate of 23.90% suggests extensive and scattered interactions among the components. Based on the results of the structural analysis, the "Policy-making and Management" component, with a total influence score of 110, plays the most significant role in the system, followed by the "Local Community Participation" component with a score of 83 and the "Green Economy and Technology" component with a score of 77. In contrast, the "Natural Resources and Ecosystem" component has the lowest influence (39) and the highest dependence (118), indicating its strong reliance on other variables. In response to the questions raised in the introduction, it can be stated that the most important drivers affecting the future of tourism development in the Kalibar region are "Long-term Planning," "Green Policy-making," "Adaptive Management," and "Application of the Green Economy," respectively. The relationships among the components are mainly direct and indirect effects with varying intensities, observable in the plotted graphs. The findings of this research are both consistent with and divergent from the results of previous studies. Torchinovich et al. (2025) emphasized the role of local community participation in sustainability, which aligns with this study's finding of the high influence of "Local Community Participation" (score 83).
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