Objective: The undeniable acceleration of climate change and its widespread impacts on human settlements over recent decades highlight the unprecedented urgency of addressing this critical global issue. Climate change has emerged as one of the most significant challenges of the 21st century, exerting profound and multidimensional effects not only on natural ecosystems but also on the socio-economic and spatial dynamics of human societies. In this context, the present study seeks to examine the extensive impacts of climate change on human settlements, with a particular focus on 84 villages located within a 5-kilometer radius of Lake Urmia. Once recognized as one of the largest saltwater lakes globally, Lake Urmia has undergone severe environmental transformations in recent decades, primarily due to climatic fluctuations and unsustainable human interventions. The lake's desiccation has set off a chain reaction of environmental, social, and economic consequences, critically affecting the rural communities that have historically relied on its resources for their subsistence and resilience. The primary objective of this study is to develop and validate a comprehensive set of criteria and indicators to measure the multifaceted impacts of climate changes on rural settlements. By addressing both the broader implications of climate variability and the specific effects of Lake Urmia’s drying, this research aims to construct a robust analytical framework that captures the intricate dynamics of these transformations.
Method: The data collection method in this study is a library method. The combined factor analysis and network analysis (F’ANP) method has been used to analyze the data. First, the data was standardized in factor analysis and the factors affecting the villages around Lake Urmia were identified in 2006 (six factors) and 2016 (four factors). Then, the Analytic Network Method (ANP) was used to weight each factor and determine their importance.
Results: The findings indicate that after scoring the villages, it was determined that in 2006 and 2016, respectively, 13 and 12 villages were in an unfavorable state, 37 and 41 villages were in a relatively unfavorable state, 22 and 23 villages were in an average state, 10 and 6 villages were in a relatively favorable state, and 2 villages, including the villages of Qolenji and Til, were in a completely favorable state.
Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that Lake Urmia has been significantly and adversely impacted by climate change, resulting in a range of environmental and socio-economic challenges for the surrounding region. A comparative analysis reveals that the number of villages experiencing a high degree of vulnerability to climate change increased notably in 2016 compared to 2006.