Today, crisis management, risk assessment of disasters, and analysis of their components (risk and threat, vulnerability, and consequence) are of greater importance than ever before in defining preventative measures, reducing the effects, and even preparing for timely response to various disasters. Although international researchers and organizations have tried to provide methods for risk assessment, vulnerability analysis, and classification of effective impacts in a system facing disasters, considering the complexity of risk management, most methods are chosen based on the researchers' purposes and perhaps on a subjective basis (based on accuracy and ease of work). Accordingly, this research was conducted with a comparative approach to some existing methods and by selecting an appropriate method with the aim of presenting a risk assessment model for floods in Hamedan province to classify vulnerabilities and potential impacts in population centers. This is particularly relevant in the field of urban planning. Therefore, initially using a library method and comparative analysis of existing studies, a suitable method for Hamedan province was found to be a combination of the Gumbel distribution method, K-mean model, and fuzzy clustering of influential parameters. In this method, by implementing and combining standard layers of influential parameters through fuzzy AHP and flood risk layer obtained through standardized matrix of experts' opinions in GIS software, a flood risk map is prepared, and then population centers (cities) are classified. Continuing the implementation of the method, the classification of centers at risk in Hamedan province resulted in the cities of Hamedan, Malayer, Tuyserkan, Nahavand, Asadabad, Kabudrahang, Razan, Bahar, Famennin, and Ghorveh Dargazin in descending order. Therefore, Hamedan city as the center of Hamedan province is located in a relatively high to very high risk zone, and due to its high population density compared to other cities in the province, it is a priority for accurate risk assessment, vulnerability analysis, and mitigation measures.
|
